Unlike GM&P1, probabilities shown in spreadsheets above are ‘>=’, which means the odds to find at least ‘k’ cards from the packet in hand. Let’s ask few typical questions probability questions and answer them using tables.
It doesn’t really require hypergeometric, but ‘>=1 of 1’ row in back-to-back table answers the question. On red coin there is 48% chance of finding desired single card, on blue coin 52%.
Gwent v9.0 examples: finding Kurt in Devotion Jackpot to purify Defender/ finding Cupbearer in Ball Imprisonment/ finding Oneiromancy in any meta deck
- Drawing at least one of two cards
Another fundamental probability. We use ‘>=1 of 2’ row in back-to-back table. R: 74%, B: 78%. This problem typically arises in decks playing a R1 card with a single tutor. Also thinning pairs are common examples
Examples: Amphibious Assault w/Jan Natalis, She-Who-Knows w/Oneiromancy, Portal w/Avallac’h: Sage, Archespores in Force of Nature Koshchey
- Completing Poison Package
Nilfgaard Imprisonment Ball and Syndicate Midrange Jackpot were the meta decks playing Poison packages in Gwent v9.0. NG package was made of 2xFangs and Cupbearer (tutoring via Roderick ignored), SY package of 2xFisstech and 2xFisstech Trafficker (there was also Salamandra Hideout for offensive poison, but we will neglect this part). Usually at least a poison pair is called for to get the removal value. We use then respectively >=2 of 3 and >=2 of 4 in ‘back to back’ table to get 50% and 70.3%. Syndicate had +20% more chances to get poison working in R1!
- Drawing at least ‘k’ out of K golds in R1 hand
Golds are too big of a package to include in back-to-back table, so we have to use Blue and Red coin sheets. For example in the model SK Witchers deck we have defined 10 cards as golds (GM&P1). What is the chance to draw at least half of them? We search for k ‘>=5’ and K=10. The answer is R: 59.6%, B: 71.6%.