One of the few really valuable questions to be answered by initial hand probabilities: ‘How probable is it to get forced bricks in hand after initial draws?’. Having bricks or unplayable cards often means being unable to contest R1.
There are few examples of decks playing lots of bricks, the most persistent being probably classical Lippy Cerys.
For the sake of initial hand study, let’s assume there are 5 bricks (classical+Morkvarg), as the presence of discarding options would require some mulligan analysis. hen we could simply use hypergeometric table, but this time more is bad. We have K=5 brick packet; at least 3 bricks disarms our hand on red, and at least 4 on blue.
Blue: 5.9% (1) + 0.5%(2) = 6.4% (any)
Red: 23.7%(1) + 5.9% (2) + 0.5%(3) = 30.1% (any)
Average: 18.25%
The impact of coin is huge for forced bricks! While being red-coin deck, Lippy gets at least one forced brick 30% of the time when going second!
If you build decks yourself, take special attention to not include 6 or more cards unplayable in R1 whenever contensting first round is necessary for the general gameplan!
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