As Gwent Masters Season 2 comes to an end, concept works on the next one are ongoing. I hope this article will provide some strict, mathematical insight to the community.

Let’s go once again through the probabilities for an outstanding competitor (**p**_{W}=0.6). In Top64 Swiss qualification chances are **~50%**, which means a lot of frustration every second time. If passing through Day1, second day chances are about ~**35%**. Combining these, we have ~**18%** total chances. It translates to: no matter how good you are, don’t expect too much – just play and maybe the fortune will be with you.

Approaching Top16 Qualifier, the chances are obviously **~35%**. This leads to **~47%** combined in a season, and **~73% **total to qualify for an Open (i’m lazy and read these values from graph just like you do). Consistency matters – particular Qualifiers are random, but in the long run any % of edge increases chances by a lot.

System composed of subsequent Qualifiers is considerably more random than corresponding League system with the same number of games. While League system is more skill rewarding mathematically, there are also of course other factors to think of in design process – these are beyond the scope of this article

Current time load seems to be optimal in general. However, particular Qualifiers used to be too intensive. Cutting the time will inevitably make qualification process less skill rewarding, so only more dispersed format could alleviate the problem.

The contemporary SE+DE circumvent does not do too much harm in terms of probabilities, but hardly could be viable in skill rewarding system. DE in fact was not much better – practical effect was similar, with nobody qualifying after losing R1 or R2.

The main problem is always the loss of information. Out of N matches, every one must be important and count somehow. No matter if in cup, league or other format.

Thanks for reading! Next article would be afterseason summary in the spirit of the last one. There is a bunch of very good scores on Pro Ladder now, so i am sure it will be exciting!

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